So how would you run things if you had the chance?

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JackANSI
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Re: So how would you run things if you had the chance?

Post by JackANSI »

lonewolf wrote:Yes, and in 1961, without the Apollo initiative, we were 50 years (possibly never) away from landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth. We were also 20 years away from the 1st commercial high density integrated circuits and 30 years away from the 1st integrated microprocessors and desktop computers. Imagine if the IBM PC was introduced in 1997 instead of 1982?

We are a delayed construction project away from a Q10 (10x more energy produced than used) plant in Japan that should online in 2018. The cost is estimated at between 10-20 billion euros. Japan, huh?
If you don't see the large theory difference between shooting a rocket into space and nuclear fusion, this is just a waste of time for me.

Japan is either really secretive about their reactor, or they decided to put all their eggs in the international basket. I can't find anything about a Japanese fusion plant at all. Unless you mean back in 2003, when they were competing with france to be the location of ITER. France won (instead of just running away 8)). ITER fits your stated parameters of a Q10, although the design target is less than 1,000 seconds of Q10.

Sustained output is in the Q5 range. But only if your idea of "sustained" is less than 10 minutes. And none of the generated energy will be converted to electricity as they have not figured out a stable way to extract the heat from the plasma once they've got it hot enough to do anything. (the radiation that is released (and becomes to source of the extracted energy) also weakens the structure itself)


Instead of making and sustaining a fusion reaction here (assuming its even possible to commercialize it at a price that won't make us pay $4.00kw/h), we should concentrate on harnessing the already on-going reaction that already exists.

Solar energy. We are already above 20% efficiency (meaning >20% of the photons are creating electric energy instead of heat). In 10 years with the amount of money spent on the Iraq war invested in solar, we could be at the 40-50% mark (which means it could potentially deliver the same power of todays cells, on a cloudy day). Meaning a 20'x35' solar array could easily power your house and have juice to spare to sell to your employer to run the things you use to make money. All at a rate 1/2 what you pay today.

Edit: Oh wait but that would mean anyone, even third world countries, could have it. Solar isn't something for just the 'rich' countries to enjoy, like fusion...

Also whats wrong with putting the 'power' in the hands of the people instead of a few large corporations who are just going to sell it to us for 3 times as much as it cost us the tax payers to pay for its development anyway?

Only thing worse than socialism is corporate socialism.
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lonewolf
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Post by lonewolf »

Yep, ITER will be in southern France. They had a big argument over that with Japan and the EU won--my bad--I wasn't paying attention--I guess its just not an issue in my country. They will build a research facility in Japan.

As far as theory...the theory is there--the fact that they are proceeding with construction confirms that. Yes, they may formulate new ideas in the meantime, but its the practical application and engineering that needs R & D, not the theory.

Because of the short-sightedness of those in the public sector, this international effort was originally slated at 1 billion euros per year over 10 years. You know, about as much as our present Congress burns thru in a little over an hour, depending on the exchange rate (which depends on what Geithner has to say that day). A billion euros per year from the entire planet? Of course, public servants are clueless at long term plannng, so there will almost definitely be cost overruns over that period.

If they used the Donald Trump method, they would build it better in 2 years for 5 billion euros and start the next phase of research right away.

Even at 50% efficiency, solar power will never come close to meeting a significant amount of our energy demand. First of all, most solar farms don't even use photovoltaic technology. They use ellipsoidal mirrors to heat fluids and run turbine generators. No matter what, solar power requires a backup power supply and even if you hit 100% efficiency with photovoltaics, it would translate (if you are lucky) to about 40% anyway...remember that sun thingie goes away for awhile every day? That makes the theoretical 50% efficient photovoltaics about 20% usable efficiency and today's photovoltaics about 8% usable efficiency.

The intermittant nature of solar and wind power will NEVER be adequate for the power grid. These technologies are best suited for individual properties to compliment the power grid. As you said, they would make great 3rd world power supplies.

The biggest solar plants are 16-20 megawatts. The present day experimental ITER fusion technology is slated for 500 megawatts for 1000 seconds. Thats equivalent to running one of those solar plants for almost 8 hours. Let me repeat. Present technology.

The problem with this country (world) is that those who work in or aspire to the public sector wear blinders and no longer possess the vision of past leaders like Jack Kennedy.
...Oh, the freedom of the day that yielded to no rule or time...
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Post by lonewolf »

When they turn the pages of history
When these days have passed long ago
Will they read of us with sadness
For the seeds that we let grow
We turned our gaze
From the castles in the distance
Eyes cast down
On the path of least resistance

Cities full of hatred
Fear and lies
Withered hearts
And cruel, tormented eyes
Scheming demons
Dressed in kingly guise
Beating down the multitude
And scoffing at the wise

The hypocrites are slandering
The sacred halls of truth
Ancient nobles showering
Their bitterness on youth
Cant we find
The minds that made us strong
Cant we learn
To feel whats right and wrong

Cities full of hatred
Fear and lies
Withered hearts
And cruel, tormented eyes
Scheming demons
Dressed in kingly guise
Beating down the multitude
And scoffing at the wise
Cant we raise our eyes
And make a start
Cant we find the minds
To lead us closer to the heart
...Oh, the freedom of the day that yielded to no rule or time...
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Post by JackANSI »

lonewolf you speak as though this ITER is built and running... They don't even get to building the actual reactor casing till 2011, if everything goes right.

All the numbers about fusion power you read, except those proven by JET, are nothing but theory, you know that right? They use equations to PREDICT what MIGHT happen on a larger scale. Usually when they do end up making the equation happen, they are off. Thats the nature of it.

One of the main reasons for ITER is to find materials that can last in the environment required to sustain fusion. Yes they are working on it, but fusion power has always been 20-40 years away since the 1960's.. You just don't have a grasp of how it works if you don't understand its a century or more away.

Anyway..
So you would rather have a few companies controlling fusion power than anything else? Look what happens to your electric bill when government regulation goes away here in PA soon and your costs are determined by pleasing investors and stock holders of a few companies that give you no choice where you get your power.



BTW:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_land_area.png

at 50% efficiency, cut the size of those almost in 1/3...


And battery technology is making leaps and bounds almost every year. You can store electricity safely.

Fusion can suck my balls...




If they ever getting working. 8)
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Post by lonewolf »

JackANSI wrote:lonewolf you speak as though this ITER is built and running... They don't even get to building the actual reactor casing till 2011, if everything goes right.
Exactly. Thanks for making my whole point. Progress is too slow and the US is virtually voiceless in the matter.

Fusion = The castles in the distance

Solar = Eyes cast down on the path of least resistance.

Of course, solar is a good idea and should be a component of the overall energy distribution...its just not a BIG idea.

I have been looking for the right plot of ground at the right price to build a solar powered storage facility -- of course with a convenient living space, music studio and business front down the middle. If things go well with that, (and I am not too comfortable as to lose my ambition,) I might decide to take that experience, go a step further and start a solar contracting company. Good southern exposure is hard to find.

Perhaps you'd like the plans to that solar-heated mobile home I designed in 1985. I'll look in the attic and see if I still have it.

In 1985, the idea of solar energy was vision. Today it is just a somewhat feasible alternative.

Of course, in 1985, everybody I went to with the plans told me I was crazy--it'll never work.
...Oh, the freedom of the day that yielded to no rule or time...
JackANSI
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Post by JackANSI »

lonewolf wrote:
JackANSI wrote:lonewolf you speak as though this ITER is built and running... They don't even get to building the actual reactor casing till 2011, if everything goes right.
Exactly. Thanks for making my whole point. Progress is too slow and the US is virtually voiceless in the matter.

Fusion = The castles in the distance

Solar = Eyes cast down on the path of least resistance.

Of course, solar is a good idea and should be a component of the overall energy distribution...its just not a BIG idea.

I have been looking for the right plot of ground at the right price to build a solar powered storage facility -- of course with a convenient living space, music studio and business front down the middle. If things go well with that, (and I am not too comfortable as to lose my ambition,) I might decide to take that experience, go a step further and start a solar contracting company. Good southern exposure is hard to find.

Perhaps you'd like the plans to that solar-heated mobile home I designed in 1985. I'll look in the attic and see if I still have it.

In 1985, the idea of solar energy was vision. Today it is just a somewhat feasible alternative.

Of course, in 1985, everybody I went to with the plans told me I was crazy--it'll never work.

Even if the US had more of a say, it can't go any faster than it is. Neither could an Apollo like program.

And unless you want it run and managed by big government you hate so much, or enjoy giving away trillions more on something just as unproven as the bailouts, you've got to agree.

Its going to happen entirely at the private/education sector's pace. Which in the case of private sector, as slow and costly as possible, especially when its only tax payer/university money they are spending. The egg heads can only play with their sliderules and wait for their turn to break it.

Invest the same amount on solar and you'd be able to fit highly efficient cells to the roof of your current dwelling and get two to three times as much power as you can now, a whole lot sooner.

Want to stimulate the economy? Make the things that drive it cheaper, mainly energy. Solar can be a huge part of that, easily.

Want to line the pockets of a few contractors and subcontractors? Invest in fusion.

Solve the issues that are hurting us all now, so we can all devote the time and energy required to do grand things like fusion, space exploration, etc.


I know its good to look towards the future, just don't forget to look where you're walking so you don't trip.
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Post by Banned »

JackANSI wrote:lonewolf you speak as though this ITER is built and running... They don't even get to building the actual reactor casing till 2011, if everything goes right.

All the numbers about fusion power you read, except those proven by JET, are nothing but theory, you know that right? They use equations to PREDICT what MIGHT happen on a larger scale. Usually when they do end up making the equation happen, they are off. Thats the nature of it.

One of the main reasons for ITER is to find materials that can last in the environment required to sustain fusion. Yes they are working on it, but fusion power has always been 20-40 years away since the 1960's.. You just don't have a grasp of how it works if you don't understand its a century or more away.

Anyway..
So you would rather have a few companies controlling fusion power than anything else? Look what happens to your electric bill when government regulation goes away here in PA soon and your costs are determined by pleasing investors and stock holders of a few companies that give you no choice where you get your power.



BTW:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_land_area.png

at 50% efficiency, cut the size of those almost in 1/3...


And battery technology is making leaps and bounds almost every year. You can store electricity safely.

Fusion can suck my balls...




If they ever getting working. 8)
I think this thread has moved into the techno zone.
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JackANSI
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Post by JackANSI »

JackANSI wrote:
f.sciarrillo wrote:I know what I would do, I could write a book on it ..
Why don't you? Don't run from this one, I want to hear what you would do.

This will be good.
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